A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a shipship collision

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.author Goerlandt, Floris
dc.contributor.author Montewka, Jakub
dc.date.accessioned 2017-05-11T09:04:08Z
dc.date.available 2017-05-11T09:04:08Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.citation Goerlandt , F & Montewka , J 2015 , ' A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a shipship collision ' SAFETY SCIENCE , vol 76 , pp. 42-66 . DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.02.009 en
dc.identifier.issn 0925-7535
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: b013ec65-a201-48a7-9cb0-2170fca35f2a
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/a-framework-for-risk-analysis-of-maritime-transportation-systems-a-case-study-for-oil-spill-from-tankers-in-a-shipship-collision(b013ec65-a201-48a7-9cb0-2170fca35f2a).html
dc.identifier.other PURE LINK: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753515000375
dc.identifier.other PURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/11703366/1_s2.0_S0925753515000375_main.pdf
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/25797
dc.description.abstract This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the maritime transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk. en
dc.format.extent 42-66
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries SAFETY SCIENCE en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Volume 76 en
dc.rights openAccess en
dc.subject.other 214 Mechanical engineering en
dc.title A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a shipship collision en
dc.type A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Department of Applied Mechanics en
dc.subject.keyword Risk analysis framework
dc.subject.keyword Ship–ship collision
dc.subject.keyword Bayesian Network
dc.subject.keyword Maritime safety
dc.subject.keyword Risk analysis evaluation
dc.subject.keyword 214 Mechanical engineering
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201705114172
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.02.009
dc.type.version publishedVersion


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