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Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.author Marchand, Philippe
dc.contributor.author Carr, Joel A.
dc.contributor.author Dell'Angelo, Jampel
dc.contributor.author Fader, Marianela
dc.contributor.author Gephart, Jessica A.
dc.contributor.author Kummu, Matti
dc.contributor.author Magliocca, Nicholas R.
dc.contributor.author Porkka, Miina
dc.contributor.author Puma, Michael J.
dc.contributor.author Ratajczak, Zak
dc.contributor.author Rulli, Maria Cristina
dc.contributor.author Seekell, David A.
dc.contributor.author Suweis, Samir
dc.contributor.author Tavoni, Alessandro
dc.contributor.author D'Odorico, Paolo
dc.date.accessioned 2016-12-21T07:52:25Z
dc.date.issued 2016-09
dc.identifier.citation Marchand , P , Carr , J A , Dell'Angelo , J , Fader , M , Gephart , J A , Kummu , M , Magliocca , N R , Porkka , M , Puma , M J , Ratajczak , Z , Rulli , M C , Seekell , D A , Suweis , S , Tavoni , A & D'Odorico , P 2016 , ' Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks ' , Environmental Research Letters , vol. 11 , no. 9 , 095009 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009 en
dc.identifier.issn 1748-9326
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: d64c234e-6530-4d54-a9f5-e3de9dbd94ec
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/d64c234e-6530-4d54-a9f5-e3de9dbd94ec
dc.identifier.other PURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/9490404/pdf.pdf
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/23861
dc.description.abstract While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations. en
dc.format.extent 11
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Volume 11, issue 9 en
dc.rights openAccess en
dc.title Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks en
dc.type A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Department of Built Environment
dc.contributor.department Water and Environmental Engineering
dc.subject.keyword food systems
dc.subject.keyword resilience
dc.subject.keyword food crises
dc.subject.keyword LAND-USE
dc.subject.keyword INTERNATIONAL-TRADE
dc.subject.keyword AGRICULTURAL TRADE
dc.subject.keyword GLOBALIZATION
dc.subject.keyword DISPLACEMENT
dc.subject.keyword SECURITY
dc.subject.keyword NATIONS
dc.subject.keyword WATER
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201612216038
dc.identifier.doi 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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