On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.advisor Pulkkinen, Urho; Prof.
dc.contributor.author Rosqvist, Tony
dc.date.accessioned 2012-02-10T09:09:36Z
dc.date.available 2012-02-10T09:09:36Z
dc.date.issued 2003-12-11
dc.identifier.isbn 951-38-6244-5
dc.identifier.issn 1455-0849
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/2145
dc.description Väitöskirjan tavoitteena on kehittää riskianalyysiä menetelmänä siten, että asiantuntija-arvioiden rooli täsmentyy ja laajenee sekä riskianalyysin laatu paranee. Väitöskirjan erityisenä kimmokkeena on ollut riskianalyysien lisääntynyt tarve merenkulun turvallisuuden kehittämisessä Suomen meriliikenteessä ja sen soveltamisessa havaitut menetelmälliset puutteet. Tutkimuksessa on kehitetty riskianalyysiin liittyvien epävarmuuksien määrittelyjä sekä niiden systemaattista arviointia. Tutkimuksessa on myös kehitetty riskianalyysin tulosten tulkinta- ja laadun arviointitapoja. Teknisemmät tutkimustulokset liittyvät kvantitatiivisten asiantuntija-arvioiden matemaattiseen yhdistämiseen. Väitöskirjan tutkimustuloksilla on merkitystä riskitietoisessa päätöksenteossa yleensä, vaikka menetelmäkehitys on demonstroitu merenkulun turvallisuuden, teknisen järjestelmän kunnonvalvonnan ja ohjelmistoluotettavuuden sovellusalueilla. Riskitietoisen päätöksenteon tarve näyttää lisääntyvän niin yritysmaailmassa kuin julkisella sektorilla. fi
dc.description.abstract The increased use of risk assesment in governmental and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in providing information for safety related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and analysis of options. The use and elicitation of expert judgement is therefore subject to on-going research. Furthermore, expert judgement is also required in the quality assurance or quality verification of risk assessment. The research presented in the thesis addresses qualitative and probabilistic methods supporting the use of expert judgement in specific decision contexts; introduces a conceptual and procedural framework for quality verification of risk assessment; and presents techniques for the aggregation of probability distributions specified by experts' percentile information. The methodological view to risk assessment adopted in the thesis is requisite modelling, where a decision and risk model is developed for a certain decision context to support decision-making under uncertainty, and refined until the decision-maker has confidence in the results and prescriptions obtained from the model. The decision and risk modelling approaches presented in the thesis are related to specific decision contexts in maritime safety, maintenance management, and software reliability. The modelling approaches presented can, however, be utilised for risk-informed decision-making in other application areas as well. en
dc.format.extent 48, [82]
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland en
dc.publisher VTT fi
dc.relation.ispartofseries VTT publications en
dc.relation.ispartofseries 507 en
dc.relation.haspart Rosqvist, T., Tuominen, R. 2004. Qualification of Formal Safety Assessment - An Exploratory Study. Safety Science, 42(2), 99-120.
dc.relation.haspart Rosqvist, T., Nyman, T., Sonninen, S., Tuominen, R. 2002. The implementation of the VTMIS system for the gulf of Finland - a FSA study. Proceedings of the RINA International Conference on Formal Safety Assessment, 18-19 Sept 2002. London.
dc.relation.haspart Rosqvist, T. 2002. Stopping time optimisation in condition monitoring. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 76(3), 319-325.
dc.relation.haspart Rosqvist, T. 2000. Bayesian aggregation of experts' judgements on failure intensity. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 70(3), 283-289.
dc.relation.haspart Rosqvist, T. 2004. Stakeholder compensation model based on decision analysis. Journal of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis - Special Issue: Towards electronic democracy (in press).
dc.relation.haspart Rosqvist, T., Koskela, M., Harju, H. 2003. Software quality evaluation based on expert judgement. Software Quality Journal, 11(1), 39-55.
dc.subject.other Economics en
dc.subject.other Psychology en
dc.title On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment en
dc.title Asiantuntija-arviot riskianalyysin pätevöittämisessä fi
dc.type G5 Artikkeliväitöskirja fi
dc.description.version reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Department of Engineering Physics and Mathematics en
dc.contributor.department Teknillisen fysiikan ja matematiikan osasto fi
dc.subject.keyword risk assessment en
dc.subject.keyword quality of risk assessment en
dc.subject.keyword qualification of risk assessment en
dc.subject.keyword expert judgement en
dc.subject.keyword expert model en
dc.subject.keyword probabilistic safety assessment en
dc.subject.keyword formal safety assessment en
dc.subject.keyword risk modelling en
dc.identifier.urn urn:nbn:fi:tkk-001139
dc.type.dcmitype text en
dc.programme.major Riskianalyysi fi
dc.type.ontasot Väitöskirja (artikkeli) fi
dc.type.ontasot Doctoral dissertation (article-based) en
dc.contributor.supervisor Hämäläinen, Raimo P.; Prof.
dc.opn Zio, Enrico; Prof.
dc.contributor.lab Systems Analysis Laboratory en
dc.contributor.lab Systeemianalyysin laboratorio fi
dc.rev Goossens, Louis; Prof.
dc.rev Vatn, Jørn; Prof.


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