Forecasting football match results - A study on modeling principles and efficiency of fixed-odds betting markets in football

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.author Sillanpää, Ville
dc.contributor.author Heino, Olli
dc.date.accessioned 2014-01-15T08:53:21Z
dc.date.available 2014-01-15T08:53:21Z
dc.date.issued 2013
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/12099
dc.description.abstract Objectives of the study This thesis is about the statistical forecasting of (European) football match results. More specifically, the purpose of this thesis is to assess how a statistical forecast model that uses only publicly available information fares against public market odds in forecasting football match outcomes. Academic background and methodology The forecasting of sports results has been widely researched because it provides important insight into how betting markets operate. Football and betting associated with it has been the most popular topic because of the global popularity of the sport and because the betting markets associated with it capture large annual turnover. In spite of research by numerous authors, there is still room for improvement in terms of developing more accurate forecast models. Therefore, we contribute to existing literature by developing a regression model for forecasting football results. We assess the model's performance with forecast accuracy measurements and betting simulations. The principal idea of the model is based on the ELO rating system which assigns relative performance ratings to teams. Findings and conclusions In terms of accuracy measurements and betting simulations, the model developed in this thesis is able to match or surpass the results of existing statistical models of similar build. The measurements also indicate that the model can on average match the accuracy of the forecasts implied by the publicly quoted odds. However, the model is unable to generate positive betting returns. Together these results indicate that the publicly quoted odds for extensively betted football matches are slightly inefficient, but that this inefficiency does not make statistical betting algorithms consistently profitable. The results also indicate that historical league match results are the most important components of a statistical football forecast model, and that supplementing these components with other data yields only modest improvements to forecast accuracy. en
dc.format.extent 124
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.title Forecasting football match results - A study on modeling principles and efficiency of fixed-odds betting markets in football en
dc.type G2 Pro gradu, diplomityö fi
dc.contributor.school Kauppakorkeakoulu fi
dc.contributor.school School of Business en
dc.contributor.department Tieto- ja palvelutalouden laitos fi
dc.contributor.department Department of Information and Service Economy en
dc.subject.keyword football results forecasting
dc.subject.keyword ordered logit regression
dc.subject.keyword ELO rating system
dc.subject.keyword betting market efficiency
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201501221435
dc.type.dcmitype text en
dc.programme.major Quantitative Methods of Economics en
dc.programme.major Taloustieteiden kvantitatiiviset menetelmät fi
dc.type.ontasot Master's thesis en
dc.type.ontasot Pro gradu tutkielma fi
dc.subject.helecon taloustieteet
dc.subject.helecon economic science
dc.subject.helecon rahapelit
dc.subject.helecon lottery
dc.subject.helecon urheilu
dc.subject.helecon sports
dc.subject.helecon ennusteet
dc.subject.helecon forecasts
dc.subject.helecon mallit
dc.subject.helecon models
dc.subject.helecon markkinat
dc.subject.helecon markets
dc.subject.helecon tehokkuus
dc.subject.helecon effectiveness
dc.subject.helecon tietotalous fi
dc.subject.helecon vapaa-aika fi
dc.subject.helecon viihde fi
dc.subject.helecon pelit fi
dc.subject.helecon tulos fi
dc.ethesisid 13445
dc.date.dateaccepted 2013-12-05
dc.location P1 I fi


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