Browsing by Author "Wagner, Fabian"

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Integrated assessment of resource-energy-environment nexus in China's iron and steel industry
(2019-09-20) Zhang, Shaohui; Yi, Bo-Wen; Worrell, Ernst; Wagner, Fabian; Crijns-Graus, Wina; Purohit, Pallav; Wada, Yoshihide; Varis, Olli
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
MESSAGEix model are widely used for forecasting long-term energy consumption and emissions, as well as modelling the possible GHGs mitigations. However, because of the complexity of manufacturing sectors, the MESSAGEix model aggregate detailed technology options and thereby miss linkages across sub-sectors, which leads to energy saving potentials are often not very realistic and cannot be used to design specific policies. Here, we integrate Material/Energy/water Flow Analysis (MEWFA) and nexus approach into the MESSAGEix to estimate resource-energy-environment nexus in China's iron and steel industry. Results show that between 2010 and 2050 energy efficiency measures and route shifting of China's steel industry will decrease raw material input by 14%, energy use by 7%, water consumption by 8%, CO2 emissions by 7%, NOx emissions by 9%, and SO2 emissions by 14%, respectively. However, water withdrawal and PM2.5 emissions will increase by 14% and 20%, respectively. The main reason is that water withdrawal and PM2.5 emissions in the process of BF-BOF are over 4 times lower than the process scrap-EAF. Therefore, policy makers should consider nexus effects when design integrated policy to achieve multiple targets. Finally, future directions on enhancing the representation of manufacturing sectors in IAMs are given.
Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights
(2022-05-09) Guivarch, Celine; Le Gallic, Thomas; Bauer, Nico; Fragkos, Panagiotis; Huppmann, Daniel; Jaxa-Rozen, Marc; Keppo, Ilkka; Kriegler, Elmar; Krisztin, Tamas; Marangoni, Giacomo; Pye, Steve; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Roberto; Tavoni, Massimo; Trutnevyte, Evelina; van Vuuren, Detlef; Wagner, Fabian
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Mitigation scenario ensembles are becoming an important tool to bring new and robust insights into the transition to net zero. This Perspective unpacks their potential and identifies key steps for better use of scenario ensembles and to foster good practices. As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.