Browsing by Author "Lucht, Wolfgang"

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Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
(2023-09-15) Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Lucht, Wolfgang; Bendtsen, Jørgen; Cornell, Sarah E.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Drüke, Markus; Fetzer, Ingo; Bala, Govindasamy; von Bloh, Werner; Feulner, Georg; Fiedler, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Gleeson, Tom; Hofmann, Matthias; Huiskamp, Willem; Kummu, Matti; Mohan, Chinchu; Nogués-Bravo, David; Petri, Stefan; Porkka, Miina; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tobian, Arne; Virkki, Vili; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Weber, Lisa; Rockström, Johan
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
(2020-03-01) Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Fetzer, Ingo; Jalava, Mika; Kummu, Matti; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rockström, Johan; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water-nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Agriculture transforms the Earth and risks crossing thresholds for a healthy planet. This study finds almost half of current food production crosses such boundaries, as for freshwater use, but that transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption could support 10.2 billion people.