Browsing by Author "Jalava, Mika"
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Item Agricultural input shocks affect crop yields more in the high-yielding areas of the world(Nature Publishing Group, 2023-12) Ahvo, Aino; Heino, Matias; Sandström, Vilma; Chrisendo, Daniel; Jalava, Mika; Kummu, Matti; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; Department of Built EnvironmentThe industrialization of agriculture has led to an increasing dependence on non-locally sourced agricultural inputs. Hence, shocks in the availability of agricultural inputs can be devastating to food crop production. There is also a pressure to decrease the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides in many areas. However, the combined impact of the agricultural input shocks on crop yields has not yet been systematically assessed globally. Here we modelled the effects of agricultural input shocks using a random forest machine learning algorithm. We show that shocks in fertilizers cause the most drastic yield losses. Under the scenario of 50% shock in all studied agricultural inputs, global maize production could decrease up to 26%, and global wheat production up to 21%, impacting particularly the high-yielding ‘breadbasket’ areas of the world. Our study provides insights into global food system resilience and can be useful for preparing for potential future shocks or agricultural input availability decreases at local and global scales.Item Bringing it all together : linking measures to secure nations’ food supply(Elsevier, 2017-12-01) Kummu, Matti; Fader, Marianela; Gerten, Dieter; Guillaume, Joseph HA; Jalava, Mika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Pfister, Stephan; Porkka, Miina; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; German Federal Institute of Hydrology; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich; University of GöttingenA growing human population and changing consumption patterns threaten adequate food supply globally by increasing pressure on already scarce land and water resources. Various measures have been suggested to sustainably secure future food supply: diet change, food loss reduction and closing the yield gap of nutrients as well as water. As yet, they have been assessed separately or, if combined, at a global or macro-region level only. In this paper, we carry out a review and integration of this literature to provide a first estimate of the combined potential of these measures at country level. The overall potential increase in global food supply was estimated to be 111% and 223% at moderate and high implementation levels, respectively. Projected global food demand in 2050 could thus be met, but deficiencies in various countries in Africa and the Middle East appear inevitable without changes to trade or adapting with future innovations. Further, this analysis highlights country-level management opportunities for each intervention studied. Several potential future research opportunities are proposed to improve integration of measures.Item Can we cut the water footprint of Finland by changing diet?(2015-09-21) Ahlström, Annica; Porkka, Miina; Jalava, Mika; Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu; Kummu, MattiPrevious studies have shown that a diet change and waste reduction have shown possibilities in reducing water consumption. By using the available resources sustainably it can result in reduced water scarcity and deliver improved food security. In this study I aim to assess how a diet change would impact on Finnish water use for food production. First the water consumption of the current Finnish diet is calculated. Then the diet was adjusted to correspond with the dietary recommendation. Thereafter, the amount of animal products is gradually reduced in three steps, 50%, 25% and 0%. In addition to this, the water footprint of two specific diets, Pale and Mediterranean is calculated. The blue water footprint increased by 3 – 23% for the animal protein scenarios compared to the recommended diet while the green water decreased by 4 – 22%. The water footprint of Paleo diet increased by a remarkable 67% and 56% for the blue and green water footprint respectively. The Mediterranean diet resulted in a high blue water foot-print (58% increase) while the green water footprint is similar to that of the current diet. The results of this study shows that changes in diets can have a clear impact on the water consumption of producing food. Studying the water consumption on a country level with local recommendations gives a deeper insight into how the diets affect the water footprints. Finland is a country with high consumption of animal products and a high daily energy intake, reducing the energy intake and amount of animal products can decrease the water footprint of a diet in Finland.Item Carbon loss from northern circumpolar permafrost soils amplified by rhizosphere priming(Nature Publishing Group, 2020-08-01) Keuper, Frida; Wild, Birgit; Kummu, Matti; Beer, Christian; Blume-Werry, Gesche; Fontaine, Sébastien; Gavazov, Konstantin; Gentsch, Norman; Guggenberger, Georg; Hugelius, Gustaf; Jalava, Mika; Koven, Charles; Krab, Eveline J.; Kuhry, Peter; Monteux, Sylvain; Richter, Andreas; Shahzad, Tanvir; Weedon, James T.; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; Umeå University; Stockholm University; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, science; Leibniz Universität Hannover; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; University of Vienna; Government College University Faisalabad; Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAs global temperatures continue to rise, a key uncertainty of climate projections is the microbial decomposition of vast organic carbon stocks in thawing permafrost soils. Decomposition rates can accelerate up to fourfold in the presence of plant roots, and this mechanism—termed the rhizosphere priming effect—may be especially relevant to thawing permafrost soils as rising temperatures also stimulate plant productivity in the Arctic. However, priming is currently not explicitly included in any model projections of future carbon losses from the permafrost area. Here, we combine high-resolution spatial and depth-resolved datasets of key plant and permafrost properties with empirical relationships of priming effects from living plants on microbial respiration. We show that rhizosphere priming amplifies overall soil respiration in permafrost-affected ecosystems by ~12%, which translates to a priming-induced absolute loss of ~40 Pg soil carbon from the northern permafrost area by 2100. Our findings highlight the need to include fine-scale ecological interactions in order to accurately predict large-scale greenhouse gas emissions, and suggest even tighter restrictions on the estimated 200 Pg anthropogenic carbon emission budget to keep global warming below 1.5 °C.Item Cattle production for exports in water-abundant areas : The case of Finland(MDPI AG, 2019-02-19) Lehikoinen, Elina; Parviainen, Tuure; Helenius, Juha; Jalava, Mika; Salonen, Arto O.; Kummu, Matti; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; University of Helsinki; University of Eastern FinlandWater scarcity is a severe global threat, and it will only become more critical with a growing and wealthier population. Annually, considerable volumes of water are transferred virtually through the global food system to secure nations' food supply and to diversify diets. Our objective is to assess, whether specializing water-intensive production for exports in areas with an abundance of natural resources, would contribute to globally resource-efficient food production. We calculated Finland's virtual water net export potential (four scenarios) by reallocating the present underutilized agricultural land and combining that with a domestic diet change (three scenarios) to maximize the exports of cattle products. Assessed scenarios indicate that the greatest potential to net export virtual water (3.7 billion m 3 year -1 , 25-time increase to current) was achieved when local production was maximized with domestic and exported feed, and bovine meat consumption in Finland was replaced with a vegetarian substitute. This corresponds to annual virtual water consumption for food of about 3.6 million global citizens (assuming 1032 m 3 cap -1 year -1 ). Therefore our results suggest, that optimizing water-intensive production to water-rich areas, has a significant impact on global water savings. In addition, increasing exports from such areas by decreasing the domestic demand for water-intensive products to meet the nutrition recommendation levels, saves water resources.Item Data-agentit tutkimuksen apuna(2021-11-17) Laakso, Kati; Jalava, Mika; Sunikka, Anne; Hyyppä, Hannu; Ahlavuo, Marika; Kurkela, Matti; Research Services; Vesi- ja ympäristötekniikka; MeMo; Päällysaho, Seliina; Latvanen, Jaana; Uusimäki, SirkkuData-agentit ovat tutkijoita, jotka toimivat tutkimusdatan hallinnan asiantuntijoina laitoksillaan ja kouluissaan. He tarjoavat laitostensa tutkijoille helposti saavutettavan, ja usein myös ensimmäisen kontaktin datanhallinnan tukeen.Item Diet change - a solution to reduce water use ?(2014) Jalava, Mika; Kummu, Matti; Porkka, Miina; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Department of Built EnvironmentWater and land resources are under increasing pressure in many parts of the globe. Diet change has been suggested as a measure to contribute to adequate food security for the growing population. This paper assesses the impact of diet change on the blue and green water footprints of food consumption. We first compare the water consumption of the current diets with that of a scenario where dietary guidelines are followed. Then, we assess these footprints by applying four scenarios in which we gradually limit the amount of protein from animal products to 50%, 25%, 12.5% and finally 0% of the total protein intake. We find that the current water use at the global scale would be sufficient to secure a recommended diet and worldwide energy intake. Reducing the animal product contribution in the diet would decrease global green water consumption by 6%, 11%, 15% and 21% within the four applied scenarios, while for blue water, the reductions would be 4%, 6%, 9% and 14%. In Latin America, Europe, Central and Eastern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, diet change mainly reduces green water use, while in the Middle East region, North America, Australia and Oceania, both blue and green water footprints decrease considerably. At the same time, in South and Southeast Asia, diet change does not result in decreased water use. Our results show that reducing animal products in the human diet offers the potential to save water resources, up to the amount currently required to feed 1.8 billion additional people globally; however, our results show that the adjustments should be considered on a local level.Item Diet change and food loss reduction: What is their combined impact on global water use and scarcity?(2016-03) Jalava, Mika; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Kummu, Matti; Porkka, Miina; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; University of BonnThere is a pressing need to improve food security and reduce environmental impacts of agricultural production globally. Two of the proposed measures are diet change from animal-based to plant-based foodstuffs and reduction of food losses and waste. These two measures are linked, as diet change affects production and consumption of foodstuffs and consequently loss processes through their different water footprints and loss percentages. This paper takes this link into account for the first time and provides an assessment of the combined potential contribution of diet change and food loss reduction for reducing water footprints and water scarcity. We apply scenarios in which we change diets to follow basic dietary recommendations, limit animal-based protein intake to 25% of total protein intake, and halve food losses to study single and combined effects of diet change and loss reduction. Dietary recommendations alone would achieve 6% and 7% reductions of blue and green water consumption, respectively, while changing diets to contain less animal products would result in savings of 11% and 18%, respectively. Halving food loss would alone achieve 12% reductions for both blue and green water. Combining the measures would reduce water consumption by 23% and 28%, respectively, lowering water scarcity in areas with a population of over 600 million. At a global scale, effects of diet change and loss reduction were synergistic with loss reductions being more effective under changed diet. This demonstrates the importance of considering the link between diet change and loss reduction in assessments of food security and resource use.Item Dietary changes could compensate for potential yield reductions upon global river flow protection(Cambridge University Press, 2022-07-11) Braun, Johanna; Stenzel, Fabian; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Jalava, Mika; Gerten, Dieter; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Humboldt-Universität zu BerlinNon-technical Summary Globally, freshwater systems are degrading due to excessive water withdrawals. We estimate that if rivers' environmental flow requirements were protected, the associated decrease in irrigation water availability would reduce global yields by ~5%. As one option to increase food supply within limited water resources, we show that dietary changes towards less livestock products could compensate for this effect. If all currently grown edible feed was directly consumed by humans, we estimate that global food supply would even increase by 19%. We thus provide evidence that dietary changes are an important strategy to harmonize river flow protection with sustained food supply. Technical Summary To protect global freshwater ecosystems and restore their integrity, freshwater withdrawals could be restricted to maintain rivers' environmental flow requirements (EFRs). However, without further measures, reduced irrigation water availability would decrease crop yields and put additional pressure on global food provision. By comparing the quantitative effects of both global EFR protection and dietary changes on regional and global food supply in a spatially explicit modelling framework, we show that dietary changes towards less livestock products could effectively contribute to solving this trade-off. Results indicate that protection of EFRs would almost halve current global irrigation water withdrawals and reduce global crop yields by 5%. Limiting animal protein share to 25%, 12.5% and 0% of total protein supply and shifting released crop feed to direct human consumption could however increase global food supply by 4%, 11% and 19%, respectively. The effects are geographically decoupled: Water-scarce regions such as the Middle East, or South and Central Asia would be most affected by EFR protection, whereas dietary changes are most effective in North America and Europe. This underpins the disproportionally high responsibilities of countries with resource-intensive diets and the need for regionally adapted and diverse strategies to transform the global food system towards sustainability. Social Media Summary Combining dietary changes and global river flow protection could contribute to a more sustainable food system.Item Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries(Nature Publishing Group, 2020-03-01) Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Fetzer, Ingo; Jalava, Mika; Kummu, Matti; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rockström, Johan; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Chicago; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Stockholm UniversityGlobal agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water-nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Agriculture transforms the Earth and risks crossing thresholds for a healthy planet. This study finds almost half of current food production crosses such boundaries, as for freshwater use, but that transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption could support 10.2 billion people.Item Food system by-products upcycled in livestock and aquaculture feeds can increase global food supply(Nature Publishing Group, 2022-09) Sandström, Vilma; Chrysafi, Anna; Lamminen, Marjukka; Troell, Max; Jalava, Mika; Piipponen, Johannes; Siebert, Stefan; van Hal, Ollie; Virkki, Vili; Kummu, Matti; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; University of Helsinki; Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; University of Göttingen; Louis Bolk InstituteMany livestock and aquaculture feeds compete for resources with food production. Increasing the use of food system by-products and residues as feed could reduce this competition. We gathered data on global food system material flows for crop, livestock and aquaculture production, focusing on feed use and the availability of by-products and residues. We then analysed the potential of replacing food-competing feedstuff—here cereals, whole fish, vegetable oils and pulses that account for 15% of total feed use—with food system by-products and residues. Considering the nutritional requirements of food-producing animals, including farmed aquatic species, this replacement could increase the current global food supply by up to 13% (10–16%) in terms of kcal and 15% (12–19%) in terms of protein content. Increasing the use of food system by-products as feed has considerable potential, particularly when combined with other measures, in the much-needed transition towards circular food systems.Item Forest Loss in Protected Areas and Intact Forest Landscapes: A Global Analysis(2015) Heino, Matias; Kummu, Matti; Makkonen, Marika; Mulligan, Mark; Verburg, Peter; Jalava, Mika; Räsänen, Timo; Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringIn spite of the high importance of forests, global forest loss has remained alarmingly high during the last decades. Forest loss at a global scale has been unveiled with increasingly finer spatial resolution, but the forest extent and loss in protected areas (PAs) and in large intact forest landscapes (IFLs) have not so far been systematically assessed. Moreover, the impact of protection on preserving the IFLs is not well understood. In this study we conducted a consistent assessment of the global forest loss in PAs and IFLs over the period 2000–2012. We used recently published global remote sensing based spatial forest cover change data, being a uniform and consistent dataset over space and time, together with global datasets on PAs’ and IFLs’ locations. Our analyses revealed that on a global scale 3% of the protected forest, 2.5% of the intact forest, and 1.5% of the protected intact forest were lost during the study period. These forest loss rates are relatively high compared to global total forest loss of 5% for the same time period. The variation in forest losses and in protection effect was large among geographical regions and countries. In some regions the loss in protected forests exceeded 5% (e.g. in Australia and Oceania, and North America) and the relative forest loss was higher inside protected areas than outside those areas (e.g. in Mongolia and parts of Africa, Central Asia, and Europe). At the same time, protection was found to prevent forest loss in several countries (e.g. in South America and Southeast Asia). Globally, high area-weighted forest loss rates of protected and intact forests were associated with high gross domestic product and in the case of protected forests also with high proportions of agricultural land. Our findings reinforce the need for improved understanding of the reasons for the high forest losses in PAs and IFLs and strategies to prevent further losses.Item Giving legs to handprint thinking : foundations for evaluating the good we do(Wiley, 2020-06-01) Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Sojamo, Suvi; Porkka, Miina; Gerten, Dieter; Jalava, Mika; Lankoski, Leena; Lehikoinen, Elina; Lettenmeier, Michael; Pfister, Stephan; Usva, Kirsi; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, Matti; Department of Built Environment; Department of Management Studies; Department of Design; Water and Environmental Eng.; Sustainability in Business; NODUS; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Stockholm UniversityIn environmental management and sustainability there is an increasing interest in measurement and accounting of beneficial impact-as an incentive to action, as a communication tool, and to move toward a positive, constructive approach focused on opportunities rather than problems. One approach uses the metaphor of a "handprint," complementing the notion of environmental footprints, which have been widely adopted for impact measurement and accounting. We analyze this idea by establishing core principles of handprint thinking: Handprint encourages actions with positive impacts and connects to analyses of footprint reductions but adds value to them and addresses the issue of what action should be taken. We also identify five key questions that need to be addressed and decisions that need to be made in performing a (potentially quantitative) handprint assessment, related to scoping of the improvement to be made, how it is achieved, and how credit is assigned, taking into account constraints on action. A case study of the potential water footprint reduction of an average Finn demonstrates how handprint thinking can be a natural extension of footprint reduction analyses. We find that there is a diversity of possible handprint assessments that have the potential to encourage doing good. Their common foundation is "handprint thinking."Item Global trends in grassland carrying capacity and relative stocking density of livestock(WILEY-BLACKWELL, 2022-06) Piipponen, Johannes; Jalava, Mika; de Leeuw, Jan; Rizayeva, Afag; Godde, Cecile; Cramer, Gabriel; Herrero, Mario; Kummu, Matti; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; Baku State University; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Cornell UniversityAlthough the role of livestock in future food systems is debated, animal proteins are unlikely to completely disappear from our diet. Grasslands are a key source of primary productivity for livestock, and feed-food competition is often limited on such land. Previous research on the potential for sustainable grazing has focused on restricted geographical areas or does not consider inter-annual changes in grazing opportunities. Here, we developed a robust method to estimate trends and interannual variability (IV) in global livestock carrying capacity (number of grazing animals a piece of land can support) over 2001–2015, as well as relative stocking density (the reported livestock distribution relative to the estimated carrying capacity [CC]) in 2010. We first estimated the aboveground biomass that is available for grazers on global grasslands based on the MODIS Net Primary Production product. This was then used to calculate livestock carrying capacities using slopes, forest cover, and animal forage requirements as restrictions. We found that globally, CC decreased on 27% of total grasslands area, mostly in Europe and southeastern Brazil, while it increased on 15% of grasslands, particularly in Sudano-Sahel and some parts of South America. In 2010, livestock forage requirements exceeded forage availability in northwestern Europe, and southern and eastern Asia. Although our findings imply some opportunities to increase grazing pressures in cold regions, Central Africa, and Australia, the high IV or low biomass supply might prevent considerable increases in stocking densities. The approach and derived open access data sets can feed into global food system modelling, support conservation efforts to reduce land degradation associated with overgrazing, and help identify undergrazed areas for targeted sustainable intensification efforts or rewilding purposes.Item Incorporation of novel foods in European diets can reduce global warming potential, water use and land use by over 80%(Nature Publishing Group, 2022-04) Mazac, Rachel; Meinilä, Jelena; Korkalo, Liisa; Järviö, Natasha; Jalava, Mika; Tuomisto, Hanna L.; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; University of Helsinki; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)Global food systems face the challenge of providing healthy and adequate nutrition through sustainable means, which is exacerbated by climate change and increasing protein demand by the world's growing population. Recent advances in novel food production technologies demonstrate potential solutions for improving the sustainability of food systems. Yet, diet-level comparisons are lacking and are needed to fully understand the environmental impacts of incorporating novel foods in diets. Here we estimate the possible reductions in global warming potential, water use and land use by replacing animal-source foods with novel or plant-based foods in European diets. Using a linear programming model, we optimized omnivore, vegan and novel food diets for minimum environmental impacts with nutrition and feasible consumption constraints. Replacing animal-source foods in current diets with novel foods reduced all environmental impacts by over 80% and still met nutrition and feasible consumption constraints. The environmental impacts of more sustainable diets vary across regions. Using linear optimization, this study compares the reductions of global warming potential, water use and land use associated with the replacement of animal-sourced foods with novel or plant-based foods in European diets. Three diet types were considered to meet nutritional adequacy and consumption constraints.Item Kansallisten ravitsemussuositusten koonti ja alustava vesijalanjälkivertailu(2017-04-28) Talja, Matti; Jalava, Mika; Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu; Kokkonen, TeemuItem Local food crop production can fulfil demand for less than one-third of the population(Nature Publishing Group, 2020-04-17) Kinnunen, Pekka; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Taka, Maija; D'Odorico, Paolo; Siebert, Stefan; Puma, Michael J.; Jalava, Mika; Kummu, Matti; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; University of California, Berkeley; University of Göttingen; Columbia UniversityThe distance between the origin and end-point of food supply chains, and the ‘localness’ of food systems, are key considerations of many narratives associated with sustainability. Yet, information on the minimum distance to food crops is still scarce at the global level. Using an optimization model based on ‘foodsheds’ (that is, self-sufficient areas with internal dependencies), we calculate the potential minimum distance between food production and consumption for six crop types around the world. We show that only 11–28% of the global population can fulfil their demand for specific crops within a 100-km radius, with substantial variation between different regions and crops. For 26–64% of the population, that distance is greater than 1,000 km. Even if transnational foodsheds were in place, large parts of the globe would still depend on trade to feed themselves. Although yield gap closure and food loss reductions could favour more local food systems, particularly in Africa and Asia, global supply chains would still be needed to ensure an adequate and stable food supply.Item Nyhtökauran vesijalanjälki(Aalto University, 2018) Jalava, Mika; Kummu, Matti; Rakennetun ympäristön laitos; Department of Built Environment; Water and Development Research Group; Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu; School of EngineeringItem Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation(Nature Publishing Group, 2022-10) Chrysafi, Anna; Virkki, Vili; Jalava, Mika; Sandström, Vilma; Piipponen, Johannes; Porkka, Miina; Lade, Steven J.; La Mere, Kelsey; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Scherer, Laura; Andersen, Lauren S.; Bennett, Elena; Brauman, Kate A.; Cooper, Gregory S.; De Palma, Adriana; Doell, Petra; Downing, Andrea S.; DuBois, Timothy C.; Fetzer, Ingo; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Gerten, Dieter; Jaafar, Hadi; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Jaramillo, Fernando; Jung, Martin; Kahiluoto, Helena; Lassaletta, Luis; Mackay, Anson W.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Pastor, Amandine; Ramankutty, Navin; Ridoutt, Brad; Siebert, Stefan; Simmons, Benno; Staal, Arie; Sun, Zhongxiao; Tobian, Arne; Usubiaga-Liano, Arkaitz; van der Ent, Ruud J.; van Soesbergen, Arnout; Verburg, Peter H.; Wada, Yoshihide; Zipper, Sam; Kummu, Matti; Department of Built Environment; Water and Environmental Eng.; Stockholm University; Tampere University; Leiden University; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; McGill University; University of Alabama; University of Sheffield; Natural History Museum; Goethe University Frankfurt; Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; University of Tasmania; Humboldt University of Berlin; American University of Beirut; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); LUT University; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid; University College London; Wageningen University and Research Centre; Universidade Lisboa; University of British Columbia; CSIRO Agriculture and Food; University of Göttingen; University of Exeter; Utrecht University; Delft University of Technology; King's College London; Institute for Environmental Studies; University of KansasSeveral safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production. Determining the safe operating space for sustainable food production depends on the interactions of multiple processes within the Earth system. Expert knowledge provides critical insight into how these processes interact that improves Earth system modelling and our understanding of the limits of global food production.Item Resource efficiency of agricultural sectors in Finland(2023-06-12) Kärppä, Jouni; Jalava, Mika; Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu; Kummu, MattiThe global food system is very interlinked and the challenges in it radiate to each of its members. As the population is growing and there is an on-going transition from lower class to middle class, the global food security is estimated to continue decreasing in the future. This has led to further investigation on the areas in the world that could be altered to be more resource efficient regarding their food production methods. Generally, animal-based food pro-duction has great system losses in the food production chain because it uses resources intensively and has inefficient conversion rates from feed to food. To optimize this, there have been suggestions that a more plant-based food production system could provide higher food security globally. The challenges in increasing plant-based food production, however, are related to weaker profitability and crop quality variation. In this study, the main focus is on estimating the unused food production potential in Finland and how it relates to the current food production system. Additionally, Finnish agricultural sectors are analysed for possible changes between current and attainable food production based on resource efficiency. The analysis was carried out by using various spatial food production data-bases. For reliable sector comparison, the food produced was converted to protein for each production method. In the analysis, there are three types of scenarios presented: actual, attainable and optimized food production. Attainable scenario has the same harvested areas for each production sector to represent production potential with the actual setup. On the other hand, optimized scenario focused on studying the most optimal cultivated land use for the most protein yield achieving production method. The results indicate that by using the optimized scenario Finland could increase its food production by 19.3–85.6%. The highest increase would come from reallocating cultivated grass fields to wheat production. The northern-most regions in Finland would still be most suitable for animal-based food production, but the central and southern parts of Finland would be more efficient at producing food by cultivating mostly wheat. The food production division between the agricultural sectors would then be 75.2–99.3% for plants and 0.7–24.8% for animals. These results emphasize the need for optimizing the food systems in Finland, as there are resources currently being lost and unused. Although, the major challenge in reallocating grass fields to food crop is related to the poor soil quality. It is therefore probable that those fields could not be used for efficient food crop cultivation.
