Browsing by Author "Guillaume, Joseph H.A."

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Effective modeling for Integrated Water Resource Management : A guide to contextual practices by phases and steps and future opportunities
(2019-06-01) Badham, Jennifer; Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Hamilton, Serena H.; Hunt, Randall J.; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Pierce, Suzanne A.; Snow, Valerie O.; Babbar-Sebens, Meghna; Fu, Baihua; Gober, Patricia; Hill, Mary C.; Iwanaga, Takuya; Loucks, Daniel P.; Merritt, Wendy S.; Peckham, Scott D.; Richmond, Amy K.; Zare, Fateme; Ames, Daniel; Bammer, Gabriele
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
The effectiveness of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) modeling hinges on the quality of practices employed through the process, starting from early problem definition all the way through to using the model in a way that serves its intended purpose. The adoption and implementation of effective modeling practices need to be guided by a practical understanding of the variety of decisions that modelers make, and the information considered in making these choices. There is still limited documented knowledge on the modeling workflow, and the role of contextual factors in determining this workflow and which practices to employ. This paper attempts to contribute to this knowledge gap by providing systematic guidance of the modeling practices through the phases (Planning, Development, Application, and Perpetuation) and steps that comprise the modeling process, positing questions that should be addressed. Practice-focused guidance helps explain the detailed process of conducting IWRM modeling, including the role of contextual factors in shaping practices. We draw on findings from literature and the authors’ collective experience to articulate what and how contextual factors play out in employing those practices. In order to accelerate our learning about how to improve IWRM modeling, the paper concludes with five key areas for future practice-related research: knowledge sharing, overcoming data limitations, informed stakeholder involvement, social equity and uncertainty management.
Exploring the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Spatial Water Assessments: A Case of Water Shortage in Monsoon Asia
(2015) Salmivaara, Aura; Porkka, Miina; Kummu, Matti; Keskinen, Marko; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Varis, Olli
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Water shortage (availability per capita) is a key indicator of vulnerability to water scarcity. Spatial datasets enable the assessment of water shortage on multiple scales. The use of river basins and subbasins as analysis and management units is currently commonplace. An important but less acknowledged fact is that spatial assessments are strongly influenced by the choice of the unit of analysis due to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). Climate conditions, agricultural activities, and access to groundwater also influence water availability and demand. In this study, a total of 21 different criteria were used to define areal units of analysis, i.e., zonings, for which water shortage was calculated. Focusing on Monsoon Asia, where water scarcity is a pressing problem, we found that zoning had a considerable impact, resulting in up to three-fold differences in the population under high water shortage (<1000 m3/cap/year), ranging from 782 million to 2.11 billion. In most zonings, however, the Indus and Yellow River Basins and northwest parts of India and China are under high water shortage. The study indicates that a multizonal and multiscale analysis is needed to minimize skewed or even misleading information that might be produced when using only one zoning.
From ad-hoc modelling to strategic infrastructure : A manifesto for model management
(2020-01-01) Arnold, Thorsten; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Lahtinen, Tuomas J.; Vervoort, R. Willem
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Models are playing an increasingly prominent role in watershed management, and environmental management more generally. To successfully utilize model-based tools for governing water resources, modelling timelines must match decision making timelines, and modelling costs must fall within budget constraints. Clarity on management options for modelling processes, and effective strategies, are likey to improve outcomes. This paper provides a first conceptualisation of model management and lays out its scope. We define management of numerical models (MNM) as governance, operational support, and administration of modelling, and argue that it is a universal activity that is crucial but often overlooked in organizations that rely on modelling. The paper lays out the leverage points available to a model manager, based on a review of model management practices in several fields, highlights lessons learned, and opportunities for further improvement as model management becomes a mainstream concern in both research and practice.
Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change : A Global Study
(2020-07-01) Munia, Hafsa Ahmed; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Wada, Yoshihide; Veldkamp, Ted; Virkki, Vili; Kummu, Matti
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3-RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption—managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.
Gridded global datasets for Gross Domestic Product and Human Development Index over 1990-2015
(2018-02-06) Kummu, Matti; Taka, Maija; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
An increasing amount of high-resolution global spatial data are available, and used for various assessments. However, key economic and human development indicators are still mainly provided only at national level, and downscaled by users for gridded spatial analyses. Instead, it would be beneficial to adopt data for sub-national administrative units where available, supplemented by national data where necessary. To this end, we present gap-filled multiannual datasets in gridded form for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Human Development Index (HDI). To provide a consistent product over time and space, the sub-national data were only used indirectly, scaling the reported national value and thus, remaining representative of the official statistics. This resulted in annual gridded datasets for GDP per capita (PPP), total GDP (PPP), and HDI, for the whole world at 5 arc-min resolution for the 25-year period of 1990-2015. Additionally, total GDP (PPP) is provided with 30 arc-sec resolution for three time steps (1990, 2000, 2015).The Author(s) 2018.
Hydrostreamer v1.0 - Improved streamflow predictions for local applications from an ensemble of downscaled global runoff products
(2021-08-18) Kallio, Marko; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Virkki, Vili; Kummu, Matti; Virrantaus, Kirsi
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
An increasing number of different types of hydrological, land surface, and rainfall-runoff models exist to estimate streamflow in river networks. Results from various model runs from global to local scales are readily available online. However, the usability of these products is often limited, as they often come aggregated in spatial units which are not compatible with the desired analysis purpose. We present here an R package, a software library Hydrostreamer v1.0, which aims to improve the usability of existing runoff products by addressing the modifiable area unit problem and allows non-experts with little knowledge of hydrology-specific modelling issues and methods to use them for their analyses. Hydrostreamer workflow includes (1) interpolation from source zones to target zones, (2) river routing, and (3) data assimilation via model averaging, given multiple input runoff and observation data. The software implements advanced areal interpolation methods and area-to-line interpolation not available in other products and is the first R package to provide vector-based routing. Hydrostreamer is kept as simple as possible - intuitive with minimal data requirements - and minimises the need for calibration. We tested the performance of Hydrostreamer by downscaling freely available coarse-resolution global runoff products from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) in an application in 3S Basin in Southeast Asia. Results are compared to observed discharges as well as two benchmark streamflow data products, finding comparable or improved performance. Hydrostreamer v1.0 is open source and is available from http://github.com/mkkallio/hydrostreamer/ (last access: 5 May 2021) under the MIT licence.
A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems
(2020-02-11) Heino, Matias; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Müller, Christoph; Iizumi, Toshichika; Kummu, Matti
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Climate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which are related to variations in weather patterns and crop yields worldwide. In terms of crop production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been found to impact crop yields on all continents that produce crops, while two other climate oscillations - the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have been shown to especially impact crop production in Australia and Europe, respectively. In this study, we analyse the impacts of ENSO, IOD, and NAO on the growing conditions of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat at the global scale by utilising crop yield data from an ensemble of global gridded crop models simulated for a range of crop management scenarios. Our results show that, while accounting for their potential co-variation, climate oscillations are correlated with simulated crop yield variability to a wide extent (half of all maize and wheat harvested areas for ENSO) and in several important crop-producing areas, e.g. in North America (ENSO, wheat), Australia (IOD and ENSO, wheat), and northern South America (ENSO, soybean). Further, our analyses show that higher sensitivity to these oscillations can be observed for rainfed and fully fertilised scenarios, while the sensitivity tends to be lower if crops were to be fully irrigated. Since the development of ENSO, IOD, and NAO can potentially be forecasted well in advance, a better understanding about the relationship between crop production and these climate oscillations can improve the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.
Participatory crossover analysis to support discussions about investments in irrigation water sources
(2019-01-01) Nikkels, Melle J.; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Leith, Peat; Mendham, Neville J.; van Oel, Pieter R.; Hellegers, Petra J.G.J.; Meinke, Holger
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Regional long-term water management plans depend increasingly on investments by local water users such as farmers. However, local circumstances and individual situations vary and investment decisions are made under uncertainty. Water users may therefore perceive the costs and benefits very differently, leading to non-uniform investment decisions. This variation can be explored using crossover points. A crossover point represents conditions in which a decision maker assigns equal preference to competing alternatives. This paper presents, applies, and evaluates a framework extending the use of the concept of crossover points to a participatory process in a group setting. We applied the framework in a case study in the Coal River Valley of Tasmania, Australia. Here, farmers can choose from multiple water sources. In this case, the focus on crossover points encouraged participants to engage in candid discussions exploring the personal lines of reasoning underlying their preferences. Participants learned from others' inputs, and group discussions elicited information and insights considered valuable for both the participants and for outsiders on the factors that influence preferences. We conclude that the approach has a high potential to facilitate learning in groups and to support planning.
Sharing reasoning behind individual decisions to invest in joint infrastructure
(2019-04-01) Nikkels, Melle J.; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Leith, Peat; Hellegers, Petra J.G.J.
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Development of joint irrigation infrastructure increasingly depends on investment decisions made by individual farmers. Farmers base their decisions to invest on their current knowledge and understanding. As irrigation infrastructure development is ultimately a group decision, it is beneficial if individuals have a common understanding of the various values at stake. Sharing the personal reasoning behind individual decisions is a promising approach to build such common understanding. This study demonstrates application of participatory crossover analysis at a workshop in Tasmania, Australia. The workshop gave farmers the opportunity to discuss their broader considerations in investment decisions, beyond just financial or monetary factors. It centered on the question, "In what conditions would you-the individual farmer-invest?" The participants' willingness to pay, in the form of crossover points, was presented as a set of scenarios to start an explorative discussion between irrigators and non-irrigators. Evaluation feedback indicates that the workshop enabled participants to share new information, improved understanding of differences between neighbors, and generated more respect for others and their decisions. As expected, reasoning went beyond economic concerns, and changed over time. Lifestyle choices, long-term intergenerational planning, perceived risks, and intrinsic motivations emerged as factors influencing water valuation. Simply having a facilitated discussion about the reasons underlying individuals' willingness to pay seems to be a useful tool for better informed decision-making about joint irrigation infrastructure, and is worth testing in further case studies.
Spatiotemporal hydroclimate variability in Finland: Past trends
(2017-06-01) Lindgren, Ville; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Räsänen, Timo A.; Jakkila, Juho; Veijalainen, Noora; Kummu, Matti
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Over the past decades, Finland has experienced changes in its climate: temperature and precipitation have increased, resulting in varying runoffpatterns. These trends are well studied, but the changes in interannual variability are less known, despite their importance for understanding climate change. This research aims to assess spatiotemporal changes in variability of temperature, precipitation, and runofffor 1962-2014 at the subbasin scale in Finland. Temporal changes in variability were analyzed by constructing moving-window median absolute deviation time series at annual and seasonal scales. Subbasins with similar patterns of temporal variability were identified using principal component analysis and agglomerative hierarchical clustering. Presence of monotonic trends in variability was tested. Distinct areas with similar patterns of statistically significant changes in variability were found. Decreases in annual, winter, and summer temperature variability were discovered across Finland, in southern Finland, and in northern Finland, respectively. Precipitation variability increased in autumn in northern Finland. It also decreased in winter and spring in northern and central parts of Finland. Runoffvariability increased in winter in most parts of Finland and in summer in the central parts, but decreased in spring in southern Finland. Comparison with existing studies illustrates that trends in mean climate and its variability do not necessarily match, highlighting the importance of addressing both aspects. The findings of this study provide new information on hydroclimatic variability in Nordic conditions and improve the possibility to adapt and predict the changes in hydroclimatic conditions, including weather extremes.
Toward best practice framing of uncertainty in scientific publications: A review of Water Resources Research abstracts
(2017-08-01) Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Helgeson, Casey; ElSawah, Sondoss; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Kummu, Matti
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Uncertainty is recognized as a key issue in water resources research, among other sciences. Discussions of uncertainty typically focus on tools and techniques applied within an analysis, e.g., uncertainty quantification and model validation. But uncertainty is also addressed outside the analysis, in writing scientific publications. The language that authors use conveys their perspective of the role of uncertainty when interpreting a claim—what we call here “framing” the uncertainty. This article promotes awareness of uncertainty framing in four ways. (1) It proposes a typology of eighteen uncertainty frames, addressing five questions about uncertainty. (2) It describes the context in which uncertainty framing occurs. This is an interdisciplinary topic, involving philosophy of science, science studies, linguistics, rhetoric, and argumentation. (3) We analyze the use of uncertainty frames in a sample of 177 abstracts from the Water Resources Research journal in 2015. This helped develop and tentatively verify the typology, and provides a snapshot of current practice. (4) We make provocative recommendations to achieve a more influential, dynamic science. Current practice in uncertainty framing might be described as carefully considered incremental science. In addition to uncertainty quantification and degree of belief (present in ∼5% of abstracts), uncertainty is addressed by a combination of limiting scope, deferring to further work (∼25%) and indicating evidence is sufficient (∼40%)—or uncertainty is completely ignored (∼8%). There is a need for public debate within our discipline to decide in what context different uncertainty frames are appropriate. Uncertainty framing cannot remain a hidden practice evaluated only by lone reviewers.
The use of food imports to overcome local limits to growth
(2017-04-01) Porkka, Miina; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Siebert, Stefan; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Kummu, Matti
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
There is a fundamental tension between population growth and carrying capacity, i.e., the population that could potentially be supported using the resources and technologies available at a given time. When population growth outpaces improvements in food production locally, food imports can avoid local limits and allow growth to continue. This import strategy is central to the debate on food security with continuing rapid growth of the world population. This highlights the importance of a quantitative global understanding of where the strategy is implemented, whether it has been successful, and what drivers are involved. We present an integrated quantitative analysis to answer these questions at sub-national and national scale for 1961–2009, focusing on water as the key limiting resource and accounting for resource and technology impacts on local carrying capacity. According to the sub-national estimates, food imports have nearly universally been used to overcome local limits to growth, affecting 3.0 billion people—81% of the population that is approaching or already exceeded local carrying capacity. This strategy is successful in 88% of the cases, being highly dependent on economic purchasing power. In the unsuccessful cases, increases in imports and local productivity have not kept pace with population growth, leaving 460 million people with insufficient food. Where the strategy has been successful, food security of 1.4 billion people has become dependent on imports. Whether or not this dependence on imports is considered desirable, it has policy implications that need to be taken into account.