Browsing by Author "Eklund, Tomas"
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- Ilmaliikenteelle haitaksi olevien lintujen havainnointi teknisin menetelmin
Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu | Bachelor's thesis(2014-04-29) Eklund, Tomas - Impact of air passengers on COVID-19 transmission
Perustieteiden korkeakoulu | Master's thesis(2023-03-21) Eklund, TomasAn easily spreading virus named SARS-CoV-2 was detected in China, in January 2020. This virus caused the disease named COVID-19, which quickly resulted in many cases globally. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, NPIs, were introduced to control the spread of COVID-19, in lack of pharmaceutical means. One NPI was to close borders, which caused much harm for, among others, the air transport industry. The impact of incoming international air passengers on COVID-19 transmission in Finland during spring 2020 is investigated in this thesis, because of the harm caused by the border closure. This study is based on the epidemiological compartmental model by Kermack and McKendrick. In this model a population is divided into mutual exclusive compartments named susceptibles, S, infectious, I, and removed, R. In this model the transmission of a disease is defined by the infection transmission parameter and removal parameter. Based on this model, improved epidemiological models are also presented including, among others, migration, or latent rate of a disease. Three epidemiological compartmental models including migration are used in this study. Two include the S, I and R compartments. One also observes the latent period and includes the exposed compartment, E. The migration of infectious and exposed passengers into these models are calculated based on the number of arriving air passengers in Finland and the relative cumulative weekly incidence at origin. This study shows a less than 2.5% impact of incoming international air passengers on the spread of COVID-19 in Finland, during the growth phase of the disease, before 8 April 2020. After this, the assumed impact in case of omitted border closure is 7%. The impact of air passengers on infectious and total number of infected persons is 5-20%, before 8 April. The results present 80% more infectious persons on 31 May 2020 and 38% more infected persons between 8 April-31 May 2020, in case of omitted border closure. The transmission of COVID-19 was marginally affected in Finland by the obstruction of incoming international air passengers, according to this study. Based on the mortality rate of COVID-19 it can, however, be assumed to have saved 10 lives in Finland. Further studies could be performed with locally specific data on cumulative incidence and more accurate regression analysis. More specific passenger origin data and the actual number of infected persons could also be attempted to model.